Unfinished Business for 2011

It has been a quiet year by Middle Eastern standards, proving once again that predicting a future here is a fool’s errand. This was meant to be crunch year for dealing with Iran. Bomb it in 2010 or live with a nuclear Iran they said. Well the year’s passed and nothing spectacular has happened, even though, as WikiLeaks has revealed in black and white, it is not just Israel that wants Iran dealt with.

It was also meant to be crunch time for America and Israel. Bibi Netanyahu would be crushed between the demands of the US administration and the politics of his right wing coalition some believed. Instead his government is intact, the settlers have gone back to building in earnest and George Mitchell is shuttling between Ramallah and Jerusalem, just like he was this time last year.

There has been plenty of rioting in East Jerusalem and some on the West Bank, but the third intifada some predicted never happened. Some saw Egypt descending into chaos with Hosni Mubarak’s health continuing to fail. He is still going and rigged elections seem to have secured his grip on power.

And we are still waiting for Lebanon to erupt. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has seemed on a collision course with Hezbollah over the UN investigation into his father’s death. It has not happened. So far. Some have called Hariri’s dilemma Shakespearean saying he is torn between avenging the death of his father and risking the stability of his country and the bloodshed of his people.